Friday, November 20, 2009

Part II, after several days:

So I seem to have missed a few days! I hope you all didn't miss me too much!
I am also going to be gone for a few weeks on vacation, so there may not be DAILY SCATTERPLOTS. However, you can carry on some type of cult following, commenting endlessly on the intricacies of the material I have presented thus far.

Anyway, we took a look at Maryland and election trends. So, lets look at the same graphs for Colorado.
This doesn't have a very high correlation in any direction, but the shape is somewhat something (that is a technical term). Obama seems to be missing some of the middle ground here. Which is kind of the opposite of what we saw in the national diagram, where it was the states with the highest and lowest high school numbers that voted for McCain.
Luckily, the college scatterplot gives us the warm hug of having our common knowledge reinforced. I haven't quite figured out why Douglas County is the outlier that it is, but otherwise everything is where it should be. This map has somewhat of a 3-quarters shape: there are Obama has both low and high college counties, while McCain has mostly low-college counties. And, Douglas County. Which exists just to make my scatterplots more interesting. Another thing about these Colorado college numbers is that in other places, the college numbers can merely be ways to operationalize general cultural attitudes. But here, where many of those numbers are over 40% and some over 50%, those are an actual electoral block that can't be ignored.

And finally, and mostly for the sake of completion:

Much as with the national diagram of African-American population and election results, the Colorado diagram seems to have no correlation. One part of this is that Colorado doesn't really have a high percentage of African American voters, even in urbanized counties. But even if we were to ignore the counties at the bottom, there would be little pattern in this diagram.

However, Colorado does have ethnic minorities, mostly Hispanic or Native American. I think these counties are probably the basis of Obama's support in lower-education counties. It is part of Obama's 2008 success that he could capture counties like Costilla, a rural, heavily Hispanic county, as well as Pitkin County, home of Aspen, Colorado, which (I have read) has the 4th-highest income of any US county.

But then, I probably didn't need scatterplots to know that part!

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